Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.003893 1.143551 1.291622 1.459885 1.645360 1.843135 2.069535
2025-02-09 0.775950 0.961281 1.170743 1.423400 1.718208 2.049611 2.448527
2025-02-16 0.610996 0.822088 1.075882 1.399674 1.797667 2.266635 2.856406
2025-02-23 0.467073 0.685050 0.964294 1.341068 1.828223 2.428502 3.214780
2025-03-02 0.347112 0.558032 0.846751 1.259080 1.819562 2.540698 3.522437
2025-03-09 0.274193 0.482081 0.785285 1.241804 1.891189 2.759410 3.981846
2025-03-16 0.212831 0.411027 0.719583 1.209392 1.937751 2.948044 4.416349
2025-03-23 0.177949 0.374782 0.699859 1.240542 2.075947 3.271408 5.055449
2025-03-30 0.135566 0.316000 0.634868 1.193591 2.093780 3.425807 5.470200
2025-04-06 0.106693 0.274766 0.591761 1.174954 2.151283 3.640175 5.982943
2025-04-13 0.082388 0.235895 0.545663 1.144381 2.185512 3.820573 6.455771
2025-04-20 0.068278 0.215017 0.529237 1.162772 2.300184 4.130447 7.138727
2025-04-27 0.055910 0.195253 0.513057 1.182539 2.424245 4.471834 7.903736
2025-05-04 0.044602 0.174237 0.490277 1.186855 2.522120 4.778511 8.634216
2025-05-11 0.035645 0.156209 0.470374 1.194032 2.625683 5.101514 9.409413
2025-05-18 0.026599 0.133627 0.434786 1.163740 2.656978 5.305110 10.003533
2025-05-25 0.018623 0.109886 0.390128 1.106640 2.630780 5.407248 10.435809
2025-06-01 0.014333 0.097251 0.371195 1.103573 2.709119 5.696454 11.194591
2025-06-08 0.010562 0.083984 0.346805 1.083755 2.751234 5.922651 11.856824
2025-06-15 0.008791 0.078990 0.345725 1.120040 2.912203 6.374194 12.927795
2025-06-22 0.006116 0.066449 0.317134 1.082722 2.913424 6.529088 13.486967
2025-06-29 0.004457 0.058005 0.299314 1.070077 2.966134 6.782813 14.231038
2025-07-06 0.003094 0.049557 0.278406 1.045249 2.988650 6.978724 14.878478